Never waste a good crisis

Covid-19 is an Act of God. At least, that is, from an insurance perspective. I know this because of a prolonged wrangle over travel insurance.

For the atheists among us, let us call it a Black Swan event. An event that envelopes every sinew of our societal constructs and impacts Princes and Paupers alike.

It’s a bit like war really. Not a modern one, either, where the brave Generals pepper civilians with missiles from overhead to prepare for an invasion. No, a proper war. Like the Second World War. It lasted 6 long years, between 1939–1945.

Can you imagine that?!

6 years of rations, curfews and sacrifice. We’ve only had 6 months of this modern-day nonsense, and neither I nor my mates have been sent to live in the trenches…but it still feels pretty tough.

Boris Johnson is a renowned ideologue of Winston Churchill. Indeed, he has done his level best to summon wartime spirit with similes such as “war against an invisible foe” referring to the nefarious virus that is sweeping our world.

How fitting, then, that it was Churchill himself that said: “Never waste a good crisis”.

It feels fairly accurate to describe this pandemic as a crisis. We can sit around all day and remonstrate with this policy change, that strategic flip flop or cast doubt on the latest epidemiologists findings.

Sadly, that will be about as useful as pissing into the window. Futile.

So, we must get on with things. The term “new normal” has been thrown about considerably; but that was first mooted six months ago, and as far as I can see, bugger all has been done about it. The news still runs with clips from nightclub owners whinging about their situation, as if it was somehow unexpected.

A vaccine looks a good way off, yet. Even if there is one, soon, then how long will it be before the next virus arrives? I would suggest that Covid 19 has made lasting changes to peoples thought processes and actions.

What is for sure is that it will be the economy that adapts themselves to this new way of life, fasted, that will emerge, strongest.

Let’s take a look at possible government interventions:

1. Treat it like a War. I don’t mean embarking on an arms race or draft in the army — but there are parallels. Take 1939, for instance. Government sacrificed the economy to protect its citizens. At that level, it’s not much different, is it?

The UK Government have provided an exceptional level of fiscal stimulus to protect its citizens, this time. They have borrowed money to do that. Money is cheap right now, with the interest rate set at 0.1%. Raising taxes to balance the national debt would be foolhardy in the extreme. Austerity would be suicidal.

No, treat this debt the way the war debt in the 1940s was treated. A generational one-off that would be repaid over time. Not a gratuitous systemic failure like the financial crisis of 2008, more like fixing your boiler when it breaks — and essential cost.

1. Invest. As mentioned earlier, economies that adapt faster will thrive. The slow ones and refuseniks, won’t. Think of Xtra-Vision — how long did it take those guys to adapt?! Far, far too long.

Money is cheap and the Government can borrow. Invest heavily in infrastructure; give us top class roads, trains and broadband. Give us the tools to build a new economy, and we will flourish.

Think. In May, Italy invited the brightest minds of the country together to participate in a brainstorming forum. It was apolitical and was comprised of leading intellectuals and high achievers from many sectors. For a country ruled so long by Berlusconi, he of the infamous Bunga-Bunga parties, it was a surprisingly progressive step — and exactly the kind of introspection required.

We should be doing likewise in the UK — removing political agendas, and genuinely canvassing a diverse range of opinion on how to model our economy to the new normal.

What could be implemented? Brighter minds than mine will decide, but here’s my contribution to the agenda:

- Tax tobacco even higher. It’s an addiction no one needs. Put it out of peoples reach.

- Legalise Cannabis. Granted, I have a vested interest (www.realcbdclub.com) — but genuinely, why on earth wouldn’t you?

- Introduce a £2 charge per GP visit. £1 per prescription. Low enough that everyone can afford it, but just enough to deter the wasters sucking the NHS dry.

So, since all blogs need a conclusion — Covid 19 has happened. It ain’t going away. Deal with it. Dither at your peril. Adapt and thrive.